SIRIP Presents Melanie Cammett (Harvard University)-Coethnicity and clientelism in divided societies: Insights from an Experimental Study of Political Behavior in Lebanon

October 5, 2018 - 12:00pm to 1:30pm

“Coethnicity and Clientelism in Divided Societies: Insights from an Experimental Study of Political Behavior in Lebanon” (co-authored with Dominika Kruszewska and Sami Atallah)

Abstract    

In this paper, we address a set of interrelated questions about the interplay between clientelism and “identity politics” in driving political behavior in developing countries, particularly where clientelism structures political life and identity-based cleavages are politicized. First, does clientelism “buy” support and, if so, do citizens distinguish between low-value and high-value clientelist goods? To address this question, we examine a broader portfolio of clientelist benefits than the forms of mobile, inexpensive goods that are distributed during elections and assess their relative effects on participation. Second, moving beyond the predominant focus on clientelism in research on developing countries, we explore whether citizens find programmatic platforms appealing. Third, we assess the appeal of coethnicity net of clientelism and other factors. Does shared ethnic or religious identities between candidates and voters in and of itself garner political support? Finally, we move beyond voting to see what candidate attributes are likely to inspire citizens to engage in more costly and active forms of participation. To test the influence of these distinct factors on citizen political behavior, we use a conjoint survey experiment in Lebanon in which respondents were asked to choose between two hypothetical political candidates whose profiles varied randomly on a range of theoretically and empirically relevant attributes. In each round of the experiment, respondents indicated which candidate they would support in national elections and how likely they would be to take part in a demonstration in support of each candidate. The data are derived from a nationally representative sample of approximately 2,400 households. We find that coethnicity is the strongest predictor of the likelihood of both voting and attending political rallies for a political candidate, independent of the distribution of material benefits. In initial probes of the mechanisms at play, we find suggestive evidence in support of “in-group love” or favoritism. We also find that clientelism is consequential, but not in the way that much current literature suggests. Rather, high-value clientelism is more appealing than the types of low-value clientelism associated with vote-buying, which actually deters respondents from supporting some candidates. The promise of higher-value benefits even compels some to express willingness to engage in more costly forms of participation, such as attending rallies on behalf of a candidate. Finally, candidate platforms on unemployment have some appeal, suggesting that programmatic politics around certain issues matter – even in “patronage democracies” with politicized identity cleavages. 

Location and Address

4500 WW Posvar Hall