Professor Michael Herron (Dartmouth College) "Mail-in Absentee Ballot Anomalies in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District

March 25, 2019 - 12:00pm to 1:30pm

The aftermath of the 2018 Midterm Election was marred by allegations of absentee bal- lot fraud in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District, most notably in Bladen County, one of eight counties in North Carolina that intersects this district. We show with a difference-in-difference design that Bladen County’s election returns in 2018 are indeed highly anomalous: compared to Congressional candidates in other North Carolina coun- ties, the 9th District’s Republican candidate for the United States House of Representatives had in Bladen County a mail-in absentee vote share inconsistent with his level of election day support. Bladen County’s 2018 Congressional election results are also anomalous when compared with North Carolina Congressional elections in 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016, and they are likewise anomalous when compared with recent Congressional elec- tions in Arkansas, Georgia, and Oklahoma, three states that tabulate election results in a way that facilitates comparisons with North Carolina’s. Congressional election returns in Bladen County similarly exhibited anomalous mail-in absentee voting patterns in the 2016 General Election and in the 2018 Republican Primary. Finally, rates of requested and re- turned mail-in absentee ballots in 2018 were anomalous in both Bladen and neighboring Robeson counties. Our statistical results are consistent with post-election investigative findings presented in February 2019 to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, and this provides some validation of the difference-in-difference approach invoked here. In light of demonstrated abnormalities, the State Board of Elections voted unanimously on February 21, 2019, to hold a new election in Congressional District 9.

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