Rebel Group Origins and Government Concessions During Civil Wars

Why do governments make concessions to some rebel groups but not others? Scholars have previously highlighted the importance of factors such as rebel tactics and fragmentation. Yet, findings have been contradictory, and our overall ability to predict when concessions occur remains limited. Building on recent in-depth case studies, we argue that the origins of rebel groups should influence the bargaining process. Rebels have different resource endowments that come from pre-existing organizations; furthermore, these resource endowments are visible to states, and they provide critical information about the likely durability of the rebellion. Using original data on rebel group origins in Africa from 1989 to 2011, we demonstrate that rebels that emerge from pre-existing organizations--especially those with roots in nonviolent civic organizations--receive the greatest number of concessions from the government, and they receive them after less time in conflict.